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Initially, Trump gave the impression to take a firm stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing threats of "serious repercussions" last August if Vladimir Putin persisted hindering ceasefire negotiations, the former president finally enacted major penalties on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly hindered Putin's capacity to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, through his latest 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU participation, he has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Favoring Aggression

The former president's initiative would effectively favor Putin for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's political freedom in danger. Although strong declarations that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", much of the proposal effectively undermine that very independence. What represents a Russian ideal would probably be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate experience, the former president persists to treat the war as a mere border issue, like giving Putin a section of Ukrainian land will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Russia's military campaign is not only about occupying a charred area of economically weakened territory in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's democratic governance – and Putin's obvious goal to eliminate it so it no longer serves as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the accountable government that Putin's increasing autocracy denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although maintaining in status the presently split oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would require the nation to give up the entire Donetsk province. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been failed to capture in exceeding a decade of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian defensive positions critically compromised.

Donetsk is the location of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that constitute a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv should he eventually decide to restart the conflict.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a move that would enable renewed fighting easier for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to cut the numbers of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 troops to a cap of this lower number. Notably, Trump's initiative sets no such limits on the invading army.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's legitimate administration as Nazis, the plan declares: "Any radical doctrine and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this element, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal places no condition that the Russian leader endanger his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Security Commitments

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation promise not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its position of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". But taking into account that Putin has breached similar agreements in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia promised to a halt in fighting and a return of captured territory in the Donbas to the government – for what reason should the international community have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on international defense commitments. While the plan promises a "decisive unified armed reaction" in case Russia resume its military campaign, and provides that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the details include vague to alarming. The proposal would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also preclude member states from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the reassurance force, reportedly headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his weakened troops, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

A separate side agreement apparently would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault threatening the tranquility of the Western nations." This implies a defense action. However different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary protection against future hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react with force to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not